COVID-19, The Economy, Jobs, Skills and what comes next?

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This is a time of anxiety and of mourning.  Anxiety about our health, and mourning for the many thousands of lives upended and lives lost.

And many are deeply worried about “a recession the likes of which we haven’t seen” in the words of Rishi Sunak, Chancellor of the Exchequer (Telegraph May 19, 2020). How will the economy  recover?  When will the economy recover? How can we  prevent the “scarring” from the lost jobs and businesses which Mr Sunak warns could be with us for years to come?

The truth is, there is much we simply do not know. But we do know this.  COVID-19 is catalysing fundamental changes in the  economy and labour market and we are  unlikely to return to the way things were before.

So what are the changes that we are seeing?

Key COVID-19  trends

Acceleration of digital transformation

We are seeing a more rapid adoption of digitization, automation and sophisticated technologies across all sectors, both public and private. The thinking is that this would enable orgaisations to pivot and adapt to a social distancing world. And make them more resilient should another pandemic or other disasters come our way.

Acceleration of E-commerce

We are seeing a massive ramping up of e-commerce as more retail businesses go online to survive in a social distancing world..

Widespread unemployment

Unfortunately, we are looking at widespread unemployment over the months to come, especially in industries such as retail, hospitality, leisure, travel and tourism – all having a tough time because of social distancing. The young in particular will be hard hit – Mckinsey’s research suggests that 45% of the jobs at risk in the UK are held by those under 35.

More data/algorithmic driven decision making

We are also seeing more and more decision making in the public and private sectors being driven by data and algorithms.  Testing, contact tracing and general AI adoption  across all industry sectors will undoubtedly bring new opportunities as well as new challenges in our work and day to day lives. Data/algorithmic discrimination is likely to  be a serious challenge.

There is hope

Amidst all the gloom, there is hope, and a window of opportunity not to be missed.   The skills expected to be in demand in the post COVID-19 world are in short supply, and the opportunity is there to  develop these skills for free and in a relatively short period of time..

We must move quickly to grasp these up-skilling opportunities.  It is the best way to, not just survive but to revive and thrive in the midst of this crisis.

But first things first. How do we survive?

Let us survive

There is a lot of help out there from the government and  several other organisations.  We must make sure that marginalised communities get their fair share.  Have a look here at COVID-19 support resources compiled precisely for this purpose by The Arete Network   

Let us revive

Revival will begin with acquiring the skills in demand as quickly and as effectively as possible.

Skills in demand

Let us go back a bit. In pre-COVID-19 times, employers were complaining of a shortage of employability skills. They were saying that not only were STEM skills in short supply but also soft skills such as critical thinking, judgement, self management, leadership, communication  and team working. They complained in particular of an acute shortage of digital skills.  82% of all jobs required digital skills and the digital sector  was growing at three times the rate of other sectors.  More than 50% of all UK employers were complaining that they could not find applicants with advanced digital skills in particular.

COVID-19 has turbocharged the  demand for digital skills in particular in light of the changes noted above.

Skills in data analytics were also in short supply pre-COVID-19 and are likely to continue to be in short supply for some time to come.

Entrepreneurial skills will be critical in a COVID-19 world.   How else can we address the looming unemployment crisis? And how else can we equip workers to spot and leverage opportunities?

The good news is that developing these in demand skills  does not necessarily mean years of study and accumulating student debt.  We are fortunate to be living in times when up-skilling can take place relatively quickly and effectively through online micro courses for free or at a very low cost.

The Skills Toolkit and other up-skilling platforms 

The other piece of good news is The Skills Toolkit  produced by the government on 28th April 2020 with input from top employers, universities and others.  The stated intention is to equip furloughed workers with the skills in demand by our economy post COVID-19. It is available to everyone and anyone and is absolutely free.

A curated list of high quality courses such as this is precisely what we need because there are so many hundreds of courses out there from different providers, it is not always easy to decide which courses are genuinely high quality and fit for purpose. .

Tech Nation Digital Business Academy, Coursera and  Udemy are a few other high quality free or very low cost up-skilling platforms out there that could help.

Anyone unsure about which course(s)  to take can do a skills assessment with the UK’s  National Careers Service and get help from one of their  advisers by calling 0800 100 900.

Let us thrive

The skills in demand will continue to change as the economy changes. New industries and opportunities will emerge, new technologies will be invented, and new and different skills will be in demand. Thriving over the longer term means staying on top of labour market trends and learning how to be confident, fast and effective learners.

Stay on top of labour market trends

McKinsey, Burning Glass Technologies and Linkedin Workforce Confidence Index are great ways of staying on top of labour market trends.

Learn to be a confident, fast and effective  learner

Professor Carol Dweck , the world leading educational psychologist has helped many to develop into confident life long learners (who enjoy learning)  through her work on Mindset.

It takes a village…

And we cannot forget: no man is an  island. We are more likely to up-skill effectively, find new job opportunities and/or  have successful businesses if we learn, problem solve and work well with others.

It may well be that  one of the most important things for us to learn is how to connect, partner or collaborate effectively.

Future Think’s COVID-19 response

The problems emerging in the wake of COVID-19 are varied, complex and overwhelming.  Future Think has pivoted towards a ruthless focus on equipping the marginalised communities with:

  • Advanced digital skills;
  • Data analytics;
  • Entrepreneurial /e-commerce skills;
  • The ability to be  confident, fast and effective learners;
  • The ability to collaborate, problem solve and leverage opportunities with others.

A Final Thought

A good academic education was the primary gateway to economic opportunities in the 20th century.  And of course a strong academic foundation continues to be important.  However, we believe that being a confident, fast and effective learner and acquiring the skills in demand in a fast and constantly changing economy are the primary gateway to economic opportunities in the 21st century. It is how we can survive, revive and thrive through COVID-19.

We have to get this message out loud and clear. And we need to do this urgently.

© Penny Carballo-Smith, May 19, 2020